Analyst Wood Mackenzie expects the US community solar sector to add 7.3GW of new capacity by 2029, which would push the total cumulative installed community solar capacity to above 14GW.

These figures come from the analyst’s latest report, published in collaboration with the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA). According to the report, the national community solar market will grow at an average annual rate of 5% until 2026, and then contract by an average of 11% per year until 2029, as beneficial legislation put in place by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was said to be “difficult to count on” by Caitlin Connolly, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report.

“Community solar stakeholders are navigating a steep learning curve while trying to secure tax credit adders,” said Connolly. “In addition, awards from the US$7 billion ‘Solar for All’ fund were announced in April 2024. Final implementation plans are not confirmed but developers hope to utilise federal funds to expand into new state markets even in the absence of official state programs.”

Despite the legislative complexities currently present in the US community solar sector, the report is still largely positive. As shown in the graph below, Wood Mackenzie and the CCSA expect annual capacity additions to peak at 1.4GW in 2026, amid a nine-year streak of annual capacity additions that exceed the 1GW threshold.